2023Q4销量逆势增长，吨酒营收同比下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) with a market price of 58.71 [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 14.815 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.337 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.78% [1]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.786 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.07 billion yuan, indicating a decline compared to Q4 2022 [1]. - The report highlights that despite a challenging market environment, the company experienced a recovery in sales volume, primarily due to a low base from the previous year caused by the pandemic [1][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023E Revenue: 14.815 billion yuan - 2024E Revenue: 15.639 billion yuan - 2025E Revenue: 16.406 billion yuan - 2023E Net Profit: 1.337 billion yuan - 2024E Net Profit: 1.493 billion yuan - 2025E Net Profit: 1.621 billion yuan [1][4]. - The report projects a gradual decline in growth rates, with revenue growth expected to slow from 6% in 2023 to 5% in 2025 [1]. - Key financial ratios include: - P/E ratio for 2023E: 21.3 - P/B ratio for 2023E: 8.6 [1][4]. Sales Performance - The company’s sales volume showed a year-on-year increase of 4.74% in Q4 2023, despite a challenging pricing environment [1][4]. - The report notes that the company’s sales recovery is attributed to the normalization of demand following the pandemic, although structural pressures remain due to weak overall demand [1][4]. Market Context - The report indicates that the beer industry faced various challenges, including fluctuating raw material prices and competitive pressures, but Chongqing Beer managed to achieve a recovery in sales volume [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs, which may enhance profit margins moving forward [1][4].