高基数下四季度增长放缓，静待增长恢复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an upgraded rating [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 756-860 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 730-827 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 50% to 70% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter of 2023 is anticipated to see a decline in net profit, estimated at 91-195 million yuan, a decrease of 58% to 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights that the strong growth of the company's products is slowing down due to a high base effect, and revenue is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. The company is also facing pressure on profitability due to changes in product structure and increased promotional expenses [4][5]. - The company is strategically expanding into the liquor business, which is expected to become a long-term growth driver. New products such as "Jiao Yu" gin and "Ling Liao" vodka have been launched, and the company is leveraging its distillation facility to enhance its whiskey offerings targeting younger consumers [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts 2023 revenue of 3.5473 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.78%. The net profit is expected to be 880.7 million yuan, with a growth rate of 68.95% [6][9]. - For 2024, the revenue is projected at 4.0 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.3%, and the net profit is expected to reach 990 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.9% [6][9]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence through outdoor advertising and strategic partnerships, which are expected to boost brand influence and sales in 2024 [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the whiskey segment as a potential long-term growth area, with plans to introduce new whiskey products in the future [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 and 2024 are projected to be 0.77 yuan and 0.95 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28 and 23 [3][6].