外销高增，业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 700 to 770 million yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 186.25% to 214.88%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 720 to 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 600.80% to 668.94% [2][35]. - For Q4 2023, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 201 to 271 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.39% to 229.40%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 207 to 277 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 748.99% to 1036.47% [2][35]. - The report highlights strong overseas sales growth driven by factors such as inventory replenishment in overseas white goods, product structure upgrades, declining shipping costs, and improved channel layouts. The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in external sales, with air conditioning and refrigerator sales increasing by 65.5% and 35.0% year-on-year, respectively, in Q4 [2][41]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25.877 billion yuan, 28.657 billion yuan, and 30.824 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.0%, 10.7%, and 7.6% [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a significant increase in both net profit and revenue for 2023, with a strong performance in Q4 driven by external sales and improved operational quality [2][35][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 753 million yuan, 955 million yuan, and 1.112 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 207.8%, 26.9%, and 16.4%. The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 9.60, 7.57, and 6.50 for the same years [2][10][20].