WLY(SZ:000858) Tianfeng Securities·2024-02-03 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [4]. Core Views - The recent price increase of the core product, the eighth generation of Wuliangye, from 969 yuan to 1019 yuan (approximately 5% increase) is expected to bolster dealer confidence and support performance growth [1]. - The price adjustment aligns with market expectations and is seen as a strategic move to gradually return product prices to their value, considering brand strength and market supply-demand dynamics [1]. - The timing of the price increase, just before the Spring Festival, is anticipated to mitigate resistance from consumers and help reduce inventory pressure on dealers [1]. - The company aims to enhance dealer profits through various policies, which is expected to boost market confidence [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are estimated at 828 billion, 928 billion, and 1035 billion yuan respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 12% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 302 billion, 343 billion, and 388 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 16X, 14X, and 12X for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total revenue for 2023 is expected to be 82,844.88 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12% [2]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is projected at 40,732.74 million yuan, with a steady increase in subsequent years [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 30,229.40 million yuan, with a growth rate of 13.26% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 7.79 yuan in 2023, increasing to 10.01 yuan by 2025 [2]. Basic Data - The total share capital of the company is 3,881.61 million shares, with a total market value of 480,620.70 million yuan [3]. - The book value per share is 31.48 yuan, and the asset-liability ratio stands at 17.89% [3].