SCSF(SH:600779) Tebon Securities·2024-02-03 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-end brand in the liquor industry, leveraging its historical heritage and innovative channel reforms to drive growth [4][18] - The company is expected to benefit from the post-pandemic economic recovery, with projected net profits increasing from 12.69 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.25 billion yuan in 2025 [4][19] Summary by Sections Investment Factors - The company has a strong brand heritage, having emerged from the historical All-Star brand, and is recognized as a high-end liquor producer [23][24] - Continuous innovation in channel management, including the establishment of a high-end sales company, supports the company's high-end strategy [4][18] Core Logic - The company is expected to capitalize on the recovery of business demand and consumer spending, with a focus on high-end products [18] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of existing product lines are anticipated to drive revenue growth [19] Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2023-2025 are 49.54 billion yuan, 56.37 billion yuan, and 62.81 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.69 billion yuan, 14.38 billion yuan, and 16.25 billion yuan [19] - The report assigns a target price of 73.8 yuan based on a 25x PE ratio for 2024 [19] Market Perspective Differences - There are concerns regarding the application of foreign management styles in the liquor industry; however, the report argues that the company has successfully navigated previous industry expansions under Diageo's management [20] Catalysts for Stock Price - Key factors that could drive stock price include the final selection of a new general manager, acceleration of economic recovery, and ongoing improvements in channel management [21]