防疫产品需求常态化，2023年收入预减27%-29%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 due to high base effects from pandemic-related sales, with a forecasted revenue of 8.06 to 8.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27% to 29% [3][4] - The company plans to focus on its core medical business and expand its consumer goods segment by opening 100 new stores in 2024, while also pursuing overseas market opportunities [3][11][15] - The forecast for net profit for 2023-2025 has been adjusted to 740 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant decrease in 2023 but growth in subsequent years [4][12][15] Summary by Sections 1. 2023 Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a revenue of 8.06 to 8.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decline of 27% to 29% year-on-year [3][4] - The expected net profit is between 680 million and 800 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51% to 58% [3][7] 2. Business Segments - Medical business revenue is projected to be 3.85 to 3.95 billion yuan, down 46% to 48% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced demand for pandemic-related products [6][7] - Consumer goods revenue is expected to be 4.21 to 4.31 billion yuan, showing a growth of 5% to 8% year-on-year, supported by the opening of new stores and improved inventory turnover [6][7] 3. 2024 Development Strategy - The medical segment will focus on core categories and three main channels, emphasizing R&D innovation [11][15] - The consumer goods segment aims to open 100 new stores and enhance profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][15] 4. Profitability Adjustments - The net profit forecast for 2023-2025 has been revised to 740 million, 1.01 billion, and 1.16 billion yuan, reflecting a significant downward adjustment for 2023 due to various factors including the slowdown in pandemic product sales [4][12][15] - The target price has been adjusted to 34-36 yuan, down from 38-40 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-21x for 2024 [4][15]