Canlon(SZ:300715) Soochow Securities·2024-02-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [2][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady development in distribution channels and new products, although credit impairment provisions are negatively impacting profits. The forecast for 2023 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 20 million to 30 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 18 million to 28 million yuan [1][7]. - The company is focusing on differentiated competition in high polymer waterproofing materials, increasing R&D investments to enhance technical capabilities. As waterproofing standards rise, there is significant potential for increased product demand [2][21]. Financial Forecasts - The revised net profit forecasts for 2023-2025 are 25 million, 184 million, and 262 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 152X, 20X, and 14X [2][14]. - The total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 2.774 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 25 million yuan, a 115% increase compared to the previous year [14][24]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its dealer model and enhancing market penetration in industrial, municipal, and civil construction sectors. Revenue from distribution channels is growing rapidly, while the proportion of revenue from the real estate sector is decreasing due to risk management measures [14][21]. - The introduction of the "full lifecycle photovoltaic roof system" and the TMP fusion tile system is expected to promote significant economic benefits in commercial and industrial roofing applications, addressing corrosion and waterproofing challenges [21].