KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huajin Securities·2024-01-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) is "Buy - A" [2][6][23] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of approximately 149.5 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of about 17.2%. The revenue from Moutai liquor was approximately 125.8 billion yuan, while the revenue from series liquor was about 20.4 billion yuan, exceeding the initial growth target of 15% [2][6] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in 2024, focusing on four key areas: product, channel, brand, and terminal [2][6] - The company has successfully launched new products and expanded its digital marketing platform, "i Moutai," which has over 53 million registered users and a transaction volume of 44.3 billion yuan [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 17.3% [2][6] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates around 92.5% for 2023 [7][20] - Revenue forecasts for 2023 to 2025 are 149.5 billion yuan, 174.7 billion yuan, and 202.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 73.6 billion yuan, 86.8 billion yuan, and 101.5 billion yuan [7][20] Business Segmentation - Moutai liquor revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2020 to 2025, while series liquor is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% [10][11] - The company plans to increase its market investment in high-value products, including zodiac-themed and limited edition Moutai [2][6] Market Strategy - The company has adjusted its pricing strategy, increasing the factory price of Moutai liquor by approximately 20% starting November 2023, which is expected to positively impact the 2024 financial results [2][6] - The company aims to enhance its product structure by focusing on non-standard products and maintaining a robust inventory of base liquor [2][6] Valuation - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 28x in 2023 to 20x in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [7][20] - Guizhou Moutai is positioned as a leader in the high-end liquor market, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2,016.08 billion yuan [2][6]