YIFAN PHARMACEUTICAL(SZ:002019) Southwest Securities·2024-01-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019) [18][29]. Core Views - The growth logic for the company remains unchanged, with a transition into a harvest period. The successful overseas launch of Yilishu (F-627) and the establishment of an innovative pipeline are highlighted. The company focuses on oncology, inflammatory diseases, and metabolic diseases, anticipating a harvest period soon [18][29]. - The company has a unique positioning in the domestic market with a differentiated layout of traditional Chinese medicine and specialized drugs. As of H1 2023, the company has 108 traditional Chinese medicine varieties, with a significant number being exclusive products. The revenue from proprietary chemical drugs reached 390 million yuan, showing a growth of 39.4% [18][29]. - The raw material drug segment is expected to have limited downside risk, with the price of Vitamin B5 (calcium pantothenate) currently at a low point [18][29]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to have a net profit attributable to shareholders of -475 million yuan in 2023, with an EPS of -0.39 yuan. Profits are expected to recover to 514 million yuan and 810 million yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with EPS of 0.42 yuan and 0.66 yuan [19][29]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023-2025 are 4.46 billion yuan, 5.98 billion yuan, and 8.40 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.15%, 34.14%, and 40.48% respectively [20][29]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability starting in 2024, driven by the domestic launch of Yilishu and the acceleration of international expansion [22][29].