MANGO(SZ:300413) Tebon Securities·2024-01-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.28 billion to 3.88 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.94% to 108.12% [4][7] - The company has a robust pipeline of content, with significant growth in both variety shows and series, leading to a strong performance in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The advertising business is gradually recovering, with expectations of a 33% year-on-year increase in membership revenue in the fourth quarter [5][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the market, with absolute growth rates of -13.60% in June 2023 and -15.65% in October 2023 [3] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 14.47 billion, 16.54 billion, and 18.14 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.6%, 14.3%, and 9.7% [7][9] - The net profit is projected to be 3.69 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan for the same years, with a significant increase of 102.2% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [7][9] Business Development - The company has successfully expanded its content offerings through the acquisition of Golden Eagle Cartoon, enhancing its position in the children's content market [5][7] - A partnership with Douyin to launch a "Quality Short Drama Support Plan" is expected to create new revenue streams and enhance content quality [6][7] Membership and Advertising - The company anticipates a year-end membership base of 66.53 million, with a projected 11% increase in annual membership revenue [5][7] - The advertising revenue is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 18% in the fourth quarter, with a total annual decline projected to be within 12% [5][7]