FAST PRINT(002436) 华鑫证券·2024-01-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company for the first time [2] Core Views - The company's traditional PCB business is under short-term pressure, but its substrate packaging project shows significant potential [2] - The company's profitability declined in 2023, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 210 million and 240 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.34% to 60.05% [3] - The company's non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 40 million and 58 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.34% to 89.98% [3] Business Performance and Strategy Traditional PCB Business - The company's traditional PCB business faces dual pressures of weak demand and intensified competition [5] - The company's sample and small-batch board business has low customer concentration, with clients spread across multiple industries, reducing reliance on any single industry or customer [5] - The company is steadily advancing digital transformation in the traditional PCB field to improve quality, reduce costs, and enhance competitiveness [5] Substrate Packaging Business - The company's CSP substrate packaging project is in the capacity ramp-up phase, with a full-year loss of approximately 67 million yuan in 2023 [4] - The FCBGA substrate packaging business is in the investment and expansion phase, with high R&D and testing costs, totaling approximately 370 million yuan in expenses [4] - The CSP substrate packaging capacity is 35,000 square meters per month, with the Guangzhou base operating at full capacity and the Zhuhai base operating at over 50% capacity [6] - The FCBGA substrate packaging project is expected to enter small-scale production in Q1 2024, with some sample orders already received [6] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is forecasted to be 5.769 billion yuan in 2023, 7.425 billion yuan in 2024, and 9.031 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - EPS is expected to be 0.14 yuan in 2023, 0.28 yuan in 2024, and 0.36 yuan in 2025 [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 76.4x for 2023, 36.5x for 2024, and 28.5x for 2025 [7] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to be 24.7% in 2023, 27.7% in 2024, and 28.1% in 2025 [9] - Net profit margin is forecasted to be 4.0% in 2023, 6.6% in 2024, and 6.9% in 2025 [9] - ROE is expected to be 3.2% in 2023, 6.4% in 2024, and 7.8% in 2025 [9]