SUZHOU GOOD-ARK(SZ:002079) Haitong Securities·2024-02-21 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [10][28]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in silver paste revenue, with a focus on semiconductor business expansion, particularly in automotive electronics and sensors. The semiconductor business faced challenges due to the overall market downturn, but the company is actively developing automotive-grade products and has made progress in sensor design through its subsidiary [3][27]. - The company's financial forecasts indicate a projected revenue increase from 39.90 billion yuan in 2023 to 67.56 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% [4][19]. - The silver paste business has rapidly developed, achieving a sales volume of 425 tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 85.4%. The company has three key advantages: embracing new technologies, rapid domestic silver powder production, and international expansion plans [17][27]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3,990 million yuan in 2023 to 6,756 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.1%, 33.2%, and 27.1% respectively [4][31]. - Net profit is projected to decrease to 160 million yuan in 2023, followed by increases to 284 million yuan in 2024 and 408 million yuan in 2025, reflecting growth rates of -56.8%, 77.3%, and 43.6% respectively [4][28]. - Earnings per Share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.20 yuan in 2023, increasing to 0.50 yuan by 2025 [4][31]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15% by 2025, with a slight increase from 14% in 2023 [4][31]. Business Segmentation - The silver paste segment is projected to generate revenues of 30.49 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 55.14 billion yuan by 2025, with a gross margin of 13% to 15% [5][19]. - The semiconductor segment is expected to see revenues decline to 9.18 billion yuan in 2023, but recover to 11.95 billion yuan by 2025, with gross margins fluctuating between 14% and 20% [5][19]. - Other business segments are anticipated to contribute modestly, with revenues growing from 0.24 billion yuan in 2023 to 0.47 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining a gross margin of 20% [5][19]. Market Position - The company has shifted its revenue composition significantly, with semiconductor products accounting for 28.9% and new energy products 70.5% of total revenue in the first half of 2023, compared to 58.1% and 41.7% respectively in 2020 [27]. - The company is recognized as a leading brand in the domestic market for photovoltaic silver paste, benefiting from strong demand in the solar energy sector [27].