Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [4]. Core Views - The VLCC freight rates have exceeded expectations during the off-season, confirming that the oil shipping capacity utilization is at a threshold level, indicating a strategic focus is necessary. The oil shipping industry is expected to see continued improvement in supply and demand over the next few years, with a sustained or even exceeding expected boom [3]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2023-2025 to be 3.5 billion, 7.2 billion, and 8.6 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of HKD 11.87 [3]. - The recent surge in freight rates has validated that capacity utilization is near its threshold. The TCE for VLCC has recently surged to USD 70,000, showcasing unexpected elasticity in freight rates during the traditional off-season [3]. - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea is gradually diminishing in impact, presenting a favorable opportunity for oil shipping [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2021 was 12,699 million RMB, with projections of 18,658 million RMB for 2022, 22,912 million RMB for 2023, 28,704 million RMB for 2024, and 31,511 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 47% in 2022 and 23% in 2023 [2]. - The net profit is projected to recover from a loss of 4,975 million RMB in 2022 to 1,457 million RMB in 2023, and further to 3,538 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 143% [2]. - The PE ratio is expected to improve significantly, with estimates of 22.98 for 2023, 9.47 for 2024, and 4.65 for 2025 [2]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 7.65, with a market capitalization of 36,496 million HKD and a 52-week price range of HKD 6.11 to 9.32 [4].
运价跟踪点评：淡季运价上冲高位，制裁加速老船出清