行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航运行业 2026 年度投资策略 把握供需缺口核心变量，看好油、散、集运支线市 推荐（维持） 场机会 我们认为干散货运输市场供需结构（特别是好望角船型）有继续改善的可能 性，运价中枢有望在 25 年下半年的基础上进一步抬升。1）供给增速有限， Capesize 在手订单占比仅 9.32%，对应 25-27 年运力增速分别为 1.4%、2.2%、 2.6%。今年以来特检船舶数量持续增多，Star Bulk 预计 25-27 年特检坞修对每 年有效供给的影响将超过 0.5%；环保政策趋严背景下，散货船航速持续下行 进而影响有效运力。2）西芒杜构成核心催化，西芒杜铁矿是中国企业深度参 与的超级铁矿项目，有望打破澳巴主导铁矿石供给的现有格局；25 年 11 月 11 日西芒杜铁矿项目正式投产，29-30 年完全达产后对全球铁矿石吨海里需求预 计拉动约 6.8%（基于替代澳矿，运距拉长假设）。 航运 2025 年 11 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuche ...

| 股票名称 | H股(港元) | A股 | 溢价率 | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船防务(00317) | 15.870 | 36.2 | 173.22% | 53.01% | | 广和通(00638) | 14.860 | 24.26 | 95.56% | 25.36% | | 广汽集团(02238) | 3.410 | 8.66 | 204.11% | 22.12% | | 京城机电股份 | 4.180 | 11.73 | 236.12% | 17.48% | | (00187) | | | | | | 中信建投证券 | 11.820 | 24.78 | 151.10% | 14.62% | | (06066) | | | | | | 南京熊猫电子股份 | 4.350 | 10.99 | 202.53% | 13.90% | | (00553) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 浙江世宝(01057) | 4.070 | 12.4 | 264.86% | 13.69% | | 金力永磁(066 ...

摩根士丹利 将 中远海能 A股评级上调至超配，目标价15.20元人民币。 ...

据船舶追踪数据显示，上周四北美LNG出口的30日移动均值升至纪录最高，同比增长约50%。 运价骤然飙升，扭转了因全年多数时间船舶过剩而导致的市场低迷格局。 智通财经APP获悉，Spark Commodities数据显示，上周五，从美国向欧洲运送LNG的船舶日租金上涨约 12%，至130,750美元，为2023年12月以来最高。 而上周一美国运往欧洲的LNG即期租船费率涨19%，至98250美元/日，为2024年1月以来最高。 近期液化天然气运输船的即期运价持续大幅上扬，原因是北美地区创纪录的液化天然气出口量占用了更 多运力船舶，致使市场运力紧张。 中集安瑞科(03899)：2025年4月，中集安瑞科公布，旗下南通中集太平洋海洋工程与欧洲船东签订1艘2 万立方米LNG运输加注船订单，将在2027年4月交付使用。中集安瑞科表示，年初至今已交付中国首艘 LNG换罐1.4万吨级清洁能源江海直达干散货船，以及向加拿大船东交付7600立方米LNG加注船，随着 全球航运业对绿色燃料需求的持续增长，中集安瑞科将继续推动LNG、甲醇、液氨等清洁燃料船舶的 研发与应用。10月10日，中集安瑞科宣布，旗下南通中集太平洋海洋工程有限 ...

| < ロ | 工业富联(601138) | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易中 11-24 11:30:00 通 融 | | | | | 54.61 额 138亿 股本 198亿 市盈™ 35.5 | | 万得 | | | -6.06 -9.99% 换 1.23% 市值 1.1万亿 市净 6.71 | | 营口 | | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | | 量加 | 盘口 资金 | | | | 66.74 | 10.00% 卖5 54.65 | | 67 | | | 卖4 54.64 | | 91 | | | 更3 54.63 | | 150 122 | | | 卖2 54.62 | | | | 60.67 | 54.61 1 1 % SoUU O | | 578 | | | 买1 54.60 9632 | | | | | | | 0 | | | 253 | | 0 | | | 254 | | 0 | | 54.60 | 252 -10.00% | | 0 | | 09:30 11:30/13:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 11: ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, reaching a new high, driven by a notable decline in Russian oil exports, which has created additional demand for oil transportation from the Middle East to India and China [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and aviation, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal trends in freight rates, particularly the potential for a "not-so-dull" off-season from December to February [3] Industry Overview - The transportation index has decreased by 5.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with the express delivery sector showing the smallest decline at -2.75% and the public transport sector experiencing the largest drop at -9.35% [4][11] - The shipping sector has shown mixed performance, with the Baltic Dry Index increasing by 5.67% while the coastal dry bulk freight index fell by 3.47% [4][11] - The report notes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has risen by 5% week-on-week, reaching $126,371 per day, with the Middle East to Far East route hitting a new high of $138,144 per day [3][4] Shipping Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average freight rate for the fourth quarter is approaching $99,000 per day, marking it as one of the highest quarterly averages in history [3] - The decline in Russian oil exports has been significant, dropping from nearly 4 million barrels per day to around 3 million barrels per day, which has increased demand for oil from the Middle East [3][4] - The report also highlights the recovery of chartering activities following the Bahri conference, with shipowners beginning to control capacity due to tightening supply [3] Aviation Sector Insights - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging fleet expected to persist over the next 5-10 years, leading to constrained supply [3] - It anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability as capacity is allocated to international routes, suggesting a potential golden era for airlines [3] - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3] Express Delivery Sector Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to utility-like profitability, continued competitive pressure, or higher-level consolidation [3] - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [3] High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a yield of 8.08% and China Railway with a yield of 3.95% [21] - The focus on high dividend stocks is seen as a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [21]

Core Viewpoint - 中远海能's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05% and a year-to-date increase of 9.13% [1] Company Overview - 中远海能, established on July 26, 1996, and listed on May 23, 2002, is based in Shanghai and primarily engages in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - The company's revenue composition includes: 44.88% from foreign trade crude oil, 13.64% from domestic crude oil, 10.69% from LNG transportation, 9.88% from foreign trade refined oil, 9.49% from domestic refined oil, and smaller percentages from other services [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, 中远海能 reported a revenue of 171.08 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.23 billion yuan, down 20.27% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 144.62 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 44.37 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, 中远海能 had 82,400 shareholders, a decrease of 29.24% from the previous period [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable reductions in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates since November, with one-year charter rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the oil transportation market [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - According to Clarksons, VLCC charter rates for 1-3 year terms have rapidly increased, indicating a consensus among shipowners and charterers about a sustained upward cycle in the oil transportation market [1] - The supply side of VLCC remains tight, with a high proportion of older vessels and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older ships [1] - The demand side is bolstered by ongoing sanctions from Europe and the U.S. against Russian and Iranian crude oil exports, leading to increased compliance market demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, contributing to a positive outlook for the VLCC market over the next 2-3 years [1] - Recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America, along with intensified U.S. sanctions on Russia, have led India to reduce its imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf imports, benefiting compliant VLCC operations [1] - The VLCC-TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rate for the Middle East to China route has recently surged to over $120,000, setting a new record, and is expected to lead to the highest profitability for crude carriers in a decade by Q4 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market over the next 2-3 years, driven by rising rental rates and tight supply conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - VLCC rental rates for 1-3 year terms have surged since November, with 1-year rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a high proportion of older VLCCs and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older vessels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Increased compliance market demand is anticipated due to ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude oil exports from Europe and the U.S. [1]. - Domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, further supporting the market [1]. Group 3: Regional Developments - Recent production increases in the Middle East and South America have positively impacted the market, while U.S. sanctions on Russia have led India to reduce imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf sources [1]. - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, with VLCC-TCE rates on the Middle East to China route recently reaching over $120,000, marking a new high [1]. Group 4: Future Projections - The forecast for Q4 2025 indicates that profits for crude carriers are expected to reach a ten-year high [1].