COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy - **Ticker**: 1138.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$90.5 billion / $11.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$103.3 billion / $13.2 billion - **Industry**: Transportation, specifically oil shipping Key Financial Results - **FY25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.0 billion, with a 4Q25 net profit of Rmb1.3 billion (+112% YoY / +54% QoQ) [2] - **Recurring Profit**: Excluding one-off items, FY25 recurring profit was Rmb3.9 billion, with 4Q25 recurring profit also at Rmb1.3 billion, missing consensus by 35% [2] - **Final Dividend**: Rmb0.38 per share, representing a 51% payout of full-year recurring profit [2] Operational Highlights - **VLCC Spot TCE**: Recognized TCE in 4Q25 was above US$70k/day, with some revenue recognition delayed to 1Q26 [3] - **Fleet Management**: 8 vessels are held inside the Gulf, unable to collect demurrage fees; 10 VLCCs redirected to Yanbu with TCE of US$170-180k/day [3] - **Load Factor**: Excluding vessels in the Persian Gulf, the load factor of the remaining fleet is maintained at 50-55%, similar to pre-war levels [3] - **VLCC Fleet**: 51 VLCCs in operation, with 6 new VLCCs scheduled for delivery in 2027-2028; 10-15% of VLCCs are chartered out [3] Market Dynamics - **International Oil Transportation**: Turnover down -7% YoY in 4Q25; however, average crude tanker TCE rose +158% YoY, tracking below industry BDTI TD3C TCE of +186% YoY [19] - **Demand and Supply**: Management believes VLCC deliveries are insufficient to meet replacement demand until 2029, indicating a continued net demand for VLCCs in the near term [3][21] - **Cost Management**: Unit costs fell -4% YoY in 4Q25; charter costs more than doubled YoY, offset by lower unit fuel costs (-17%) [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25: Rmb23.8 billion - FY26E: Rmb38.9 billion - FY27E: Rmb36.9 billion - FY28E: Rmb34.9 billion [7] - **EPS Projections**: - FY25: Rmb0.79 - FY26E: Rmb2.45 - FY27E: Rmb2.11 - FY28E: Rmb1.73 [7] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating**: COSCO Shipping Energy is rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of the VLCC super-cycle driven by tight capacity and industry consolidation [20] - **Market Share**: The company holds a 5% share of the global seaborne crude oil tanker market and a 1% share of the product oil tanker market [35] - **Growth Drivers**: Limited capacity additions, structural demand increases due to geopolitical factors, and COSCO's diversified fleet position are expected to support continued growth [35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - OPEC output reductions - Higher-than-expected capacity deliveries - Weaker oil consumption demand due to macroeconomic conditions [32] Conclusion COSCO Shipping Energy's recent performance reflects strong operational metrics despite some revenue recognition delays. The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market dynamics, with a solid growth outlook supported by its extensive fleet and strategic management decisions.

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.1 FF301 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 A 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 否 證券代號 (如上市) 600026 說明 A股 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 4,169,220,839 0 4,169,220,839 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 0 本月底結存 4,169,220,839 0 4,169,220,839 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01138 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.98 CNY per share, based on a 10x PE for 2026 [3][22]. Core Insights - The supply-side tightening logic continues, leading to an upward shift in freight rates. The company benefited from a high oil transportation market in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in profits during the peak season [6][22]. - The international oil transportation market showed a trend of lower prices in the first half of 2025, followed by a strong recovery in the fourth quarter, particularly for VLCC vessels [6][22]. - The company’s core business, foreign trade oil transportation, achieved a revenue of 15.13 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth, driven by a strong market in Q4 [6][22]. Summary by Sections Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 15.84 billion CNY in 2026, with projections of 11.34 billion CNY in 2027 and 9.89 billion CNY in 2028. The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly in 2026, reaching 41.22 billion CNY, before declining in the following years [2][22]. - The report highlights the stability of the domestic oil transportation business, projecting modest growth rates of around 3.28% to 3.81% from 2026 to 2028 [12][20]. - The foreign trade LNG transportation segment is expected to see a revenue decline in 2026, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [12][20]. Business Segment Analysis - The foreign trade oil transportation segment is anticipated to experience substantial growth, with revenue expected to increase from 151.33 billion CNY in 2025 to 324.86 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 114.67% [20][22]. - The report notes that the supply of new VLCC vessels is limited, with only six new deliveries expected in 2025, while the aging fleet poses additional challenges [6][22]. - Demand-side factors, including geopolitical tensions and sanctions, are reshaping global trade patterns, which are expected to sustain high freight rates [6][22].

Core Insights - The oil shipping industry is experiencing a "super bull market" characterized by two phases of significant growth, with expectations for high prosperity to continue [3] - The strategic value of oil shipping is highlighted, with a recommendation to maintain an "overweight" rating on the sector [3] Investment Highlights - The oil shipping market has achieved a "super bull market" in two phases from 2022 to 2025. The first phase involved a restructuring of global oil shipping trade due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which increased shipping distances and demand by over 10%, driving capacity utilization rates to a critical threshold [5] - The second phase is marked by an increase in global oil production, with OPEC+ expected to start increasing production from April 2025, leading to a sustained high demand for oil shipping [5] - The report emphasizes that even without geopolitical conflicts, the high prosperity of the oil shipping sector is expected to last for several years [5] - The emergence of a gray market due to U.S. sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia has created unexpected supply-demand dynamics, which could further enhance the high prosperity of the oil shipping market [5] - The report notes that 17% of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) have been sanctioned by the U.S., primarily older vessels, and if sanctions are lifted, there could be a significant shift back to compliant demand, sustaining high market conditions [5] - The report suggests that the oil shipping sector's supply constraints and aging fleet will ensure continued high prosperity and provide valuation space for the industry [5] - The current order book for VLCCs has risen to 22%, with deliveries scheduled until 2030, while the aging fleet is expected to lead to a supply bottleneck in the coming years [5] Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating on the oil shipping sector, highlighting the strategic value of Chinese shipping companies, which are expected to exceed market expectations [5] - Specific companies recommended for investment include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, and China Shipbuilding Leasing [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The shipping industry is currently facing significant disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting oil transportation routes and pricing dynamics [2][3][4][8][12]. Key Points Fleet Deployment and Market Strategy - Approximately 10 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) have been redirected to Yanbu Port in Saudi Arabia, reducing the Middle East cargo share to a historical low of 50% [2][9]. - The company maintains a cautious approach to the spot market, keeping the VLCC time charter ratio between 10% and 15%, while all Aframax vessels are operated in-house to retain performance flexibility in a high freight rate environment [2][6]. - The company has deployed 4-5 Aframax vessels in the Atlantic region and is exploring "white oil to black oil" operations [2][5]. Freight Rate Performance - Current TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates are approximately $130,000-$140,000 per day for VLCCs on West Africa/Gulf of Mexico routes and $170,000-$180,000 per day for Red Sea routes, while Aframax vessels in the Atlantic region are nearing $150,000 per day [2][10][11]. - The company’s TCE levels for its fleet are competitive, with Aframax rates benefiting from increased regional crude procurement in Europe and temporary exemptions from the Jones Act [5][11]. Domestic and International Trade Dynamics - Domestic shipping capacity is constrained due to national energy security requirements, limiting the ability to shift LR1/LR2 vessels to international trade [2][6]. - The company has noted a significant reduction in cargo from the Middle East, with current cargo share from this region at about 50%, which is historically low [9][12]. Cost Management and Risk Mitigation - Increased operational costs due to geopolitical risks have been incorporated into TCE calculations, with the potential for these costs to be passed on to charterers [2][9]. - The company is monitoring the market closely and adjusting its fleet deployment based on trade flow changes and safety conditions in the Middle East [4][12]. Market Volatility and Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience significant volatility, with freight rates likely to fluctuate dramatically based on geopolitical developments and inventory replenishment needs [3][8]. - If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operations, freight rates will depend heavily on global trade patterns and the overall volume of oil exports from producing countries [8][12]. Operational Adjustments - The company has adjusted its operational strategies in response to the changing market, ensuring that vessels are deployed efficiently to meet demand while maintaining safety and service quality [12][16]. - The company has not reported any demurrage income from vessels waiting in the Gulf due to the current geopolitical situation, as these delays are considered force majeure [10][12]. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Trends - Major oil companies are increasingly concerned about future capacity shortages and are seeking to secure long-term contracts with compliant shipowners [14]. - The shipbuilding capacity is constrained, with shipyards fully booked until 2029, limiting the ability to increase fleet size in the short term [14]. Conclusion - The company is navigating a complex and rapidly changing market landscape, focusing on maintaining operational flexibility and responding to shifts in trade flows while managing costs and risks associated with geopolitical tensions. The outlook remains cautious, with an emphasis on adapting to market conditions and ensuring the safety and efficiency of operations.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of RMB 26.80 and HKD 21.00 [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 4.04 billion for 2025, which is a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to higher-than-expected costs. However, the net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 1.31 billion, showing a significant increase of 111.5% year-on-year and 54.0% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a substantial rise in VLCC tanker rates since Q4 2025. The company announced a year-end dividend of RMB 0.38 per share, corresponding to an annual payout ratio of 51.4% [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's foreign trade oil transportation achieved a gross profit of RMB 3.37 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in profits from foreign trade refined oil. The gross profit from foreign trade crude oil and refined oil tankers was RMB 2.29 billion and RMB 0.56 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +34.6% and -32.9%. In Q4, the gross profit from foreign trade crude oil and refined oil tankers was RMB 1.31 billion and RMB 0.14 billion, showing year-on-year increases of 364.0% and 704.5% [2] Market Dynamics - The VLCC rates have significantly increased since Q4 2025, with the average BDTI VLCC rate rising by 263% year-on-year to USD 148,000 per day as of March 26, 2026. The rates for VLCC routes from the Middle East to China, the US Gulf to China, and West Africa to China have increased by 443%, 166%, and 189%, respectively [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the core variable determining the performance of shipping rates in 2026 will be whether the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations. If the strait gradually reopens, it will support current high shipping rates; conversely, prolonged control could lead to a decline in global crude oil transport volumes and pressure on rates [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2026 has been raised by 69% to RMB 9.82 billion, and for 2027 by 19% to RMB 7.38 billion, with a new forecast for 2028 at RMB 7.20 billion. The target price has been adjusted to RMB 26.80 and HKD 21.00, reflecting the current high shipping rates and long-term energy transport premiums [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q4 performance validates an upward cycle, with optimism surrounding the "oil transportation era" [5] - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have been rising since August, driven by increased demand due to OPEC+ lifting voluntary production cuts and a tight supply-demand balance in the oil transportation market [7] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026, with VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates expected to reach an average of $102,000 per day in the first two months of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 150.8% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 238.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.037 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.11% [7] - The report projects the company's net profit for 2026-2028 to be 10.947 billion yuan, 13.899 billion yuan, and 16.592 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 171.15%, 26.96%, and 19.37% [7] - The company's P/E ratios for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 11.83, 9.32, and 7.80 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the spring holiday travel, with domestic fuel surcharges and rising ticket prices in the China-Europe routes aiding oil price transmission. The report suggests taking advantage of the geopolitical oil price opportunities [3][4]. - The oil shipping trade remains chaotic, with expectations that Chinese shipping companies' profits may exceed forecasts due to the high demand and strategic value of oil shipping [4]. - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic demand, with various regions initiating expansion projects that could significantly impact long-term investment returns [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The spring holiday is anticipated to boost travel during the Qingming Festival, with high passenger load factors supporting a continued increase in domestic ticket prices. The average domestic aviation fuel price is expected to rise by over 4% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for airlines is projected to improve significantly [4]. - The report highlights that the Chinese aviation supply has entered a low growth phase, and demand is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending, ensuring that the impact of oil prices is less than market concerns [4]. Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector has entered a high prosperity phase, with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East providing unexpected opportunities for supply and demand dynamics. The report notes that the average daily earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) are currently over $10,000 [4]. - Short-term disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing trade chaos are expected to keep shipping rates high, with Chinese shipowners adapting to maximize profits [4]. Highways - The report identifies five key policy trends in highway expansion that could significantly influence investment returns. These include the ability to reassess toll periods and standards, treating expansion projects as new constructions, and extending operational periods from 30 to 40 years [4]. - The stable cash flow and dividends from highway companies make them attractive for investment, with recommendations for specific companies in this sector [4].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION CO., LTD.* （在中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1138） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條之規定而作出。 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司（「本公司」）之A股在上海證券交易所上市，以下公告為本 公司根據上海證券交易所之要求於上海證券交易所網站刊發之公告。 承董事會命 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 公司秘書 倪藝丹 中華人民共和國，上海 二零二六年三月二十六日 於本公告刊發日期，董事會由執行董事任永強先生及朱邁進先生，非執行董事汪樹青 先生、王威先生、周崇沂女士及馬媛茹女士，以及獨立非執行董事黃偉德先生、 李潤生先生、趙勁松先生及王祖溫先生所組成。 * 僅供識別 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司关于化工品供应链整合项目暨关联交易标的股权、资产 未发生减值的测试报告 中 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 COSCO SHIPPING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION CO., LTD.* （在中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1138） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條之規定而作出。 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司（「本公司」）之A股在上海證券交易所上市，以下公告為本 公司根據上海證券交易所之要求於上海證券交易所網站刊發之公告。 承董事會命 中遠海運能源運輸股份有限公司 公司秘書 倪藝丹 中華人民共和國，上海 二零二六年三月二十六日 於本公告刊發日期，董事會由執行董事任永強先生及朱邁進先生，非執行董事汪樹青 先生、王威先生、周崇沂女士及馬媛茹女士，以及獨立非執行董事黃偉德先生、 李潤生先生、趙勁松先生及王祖溫先生所組成。 * 僅供識別 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司 关于化工品供应链整合项目暨关联交易标的 股权、资产未发生减值的测试报告的 ...