HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Soochow Securities·2024-02-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company has released a positive earnings forecast, expecting 2023 revenue to be no less than 41.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.3% and a 66% increase compared to 2019 [3] - The net profit from continuing operations is expected to be no less than 4.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 168.3% and a 71.8% increase compared to 2019 [3] - In the second half of 2023, revenue slightly exceeded expectations at 22.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41.7% [3] - The company’s operational strategies, including employee incentives and product innovation, have contributed to strong performance and market leadership [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023-2025 are adjusted to 44 billion, 51 billion, and 57 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 168.7%, 16.9%, and 11.5% [4] - The current closing price corresponds to a three-year dynamic P/E ratio of 16, 14, and 12 times for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a stable table turnover rate of around 4 times in 2024, with plans to open 70-80 new main brand stores [3][4] Market Data - The closing price is 14.06 HKD, with a one-year low of 11.94 HKD and a high of 23.95 HKD [6] - The market capitalization is approximately 78.37 billion HKD [6] Financial Ratios - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 0.79, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan respectively [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 37.16% in 2023, decreasing to 25.24% by 2025 [9] - The gross profit margin is projected to be around 60.84% in 2023, slightly increasing in subsequent years [9]