Zhujiang Brewery(002461) 华鑫证券·2024-02-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461 SZ) [6] Core Views - Zhujiang Beer achieved both volume and price increases in 2023, with revenue reaching 5 378 billion yuan (up 9 13% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan (up 4 43% YoY) [4] - The company's product structure in the mid-range and sub-high price segments is well-established, with a competitive advantage in the Guangdong market [5] - Profit growth in 2023 was slightly slower than revenue growth, mainly due to cost factors, but 2024 is expected to see a year-on-year decline in raw material costs, potentially boosting profitability [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, Zhujiang Beer sold 1 4028 million tons of products (up 4 79% YoY) with an average price of 3 834 yuan per kiloliter (up 4 14% YoY) [4] - Q4 2023 saw a slight pressure on structural upgrades, with revenue of 827 million yuan (up 1 16% YoY) and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 19 million yuan [4] - The company's 2024 and 2025 EPS are forecasted to be 0 37 yuan and 0 46 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 5x and 17 4x [6] Market Position - Zhujiang Beer has a strong brand advantage in its base market, with continuous improvement in catering coverage [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 44 7% in 2023 to 49 1% in 2025, while net margin is projected to rise from 11 7% to 16 0% over the same period [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 5 378 billion yuan in 2023 to 6 412 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 9 1% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 624 million yuan in 2023 to 1 014 billion yuan in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 27 5% [8] - ROE is projected to improve from 6 2% in 2023 to 9 2% in 2025 [8]