深度报告：军民一体总装龙头，订单充盈百尺竿头

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) [2] Core Views - China Shipbuilding is positioned as a leading player in the military-civilian integrated assembly sector, with rapid expansion following the strategic merger of the southern and northern shipbuilding groups. The company has accelerated its capital operations and has a rich product structure in military and civilian products, enhancing its production capacity [10][12] - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by cyclical trends, with significant cycles occurring approximately every 30 years. The current market is poised for a new cycle driven by fleet aging and green transformation, indicating a potential investment opportunity [10][64] - The demand for civilian ships is on the rise, with a peak in orders driven by container shipping, while the supply side is constrained, suggesting a new cycle is beginning [10][68] Summary by Sections Section 1: Military-Civilian Integrated Assembly Leader - The company has undergone significant asset restructuring, enhancing its capabilities and expanding its asset scale from 44.35 billion yuan in 2019 to 152.51 billion yuan in 2020, a growth of 243.87% [20] - China Shipbuilding operates four major subsidiaries, including Jiangnan Shipyard and Guangzhou Shipyard, covering the entire shipbuilding industry chain [15][31] - The company has a diverse product range, producing various military and civilian vessels, and is focusing on high-end ship types to meet increasing market demand [27][29] Section 2: Driven by Trade, a Major Cycle Industry - The shipbuilding industry is closely linked to the shipping market, with China holding a dominant position in global shipbuilding orders, accounting for 52% of the total as of 2023 [59] - Historical data indicates that the shipbuilding industry experiences major cycles approximately every 20-30 years, with the current market indicating the onset of a fifth major cycle [61][64] - The aging fleet and the push for green transformation are key factors driving the upcoming cycle, with significant potential for new orders in the coming years [64][66] Section 3: Civilian Ships - The civilian ship market is segmented into various categories, including container ships, bulk carriers, and oil tankers, with current demand showing significant potential for growth [69] - The report highlights that the container ship market has already seen a peak in orders, while oil tanker demand is expected to follow suit, driven by increasing global oil consumption [76] - The bulk carrier market is currently weak, but future improvements are anticipated due to fleet aging and regulatory pressures [80]