东鹏饮料首次覆盖：旭日东升，鹏抟九州

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The energy drink market in China reached a terminal market size of 60.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of approximately 11% from 2017 to 2022, making it the fastest-growing category in the soft drink industry [4][17]. - The company has successfully increased its market share from 6% in 2013 to 20% in 2022, capitalizing on the decline of Red Bull's market share from 73% to 36% during the same period [4][14]. - The company’s flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 8 billion yuan in revenue and has been the top-selling energy drink in China for two consecutive years [4][36]. - The company is expanding its product matrix with new categories such as Dongpeng Coffee and Sugar-Free Tea, aiming to become a comprehensive beverage group [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The energy drink sector is still in its early development stage in China, with significant growth potential as per capita consumption is only about 20% of that in developed countries [19][27]. - The market is expected to grow to 75.2 billion yuan by 2027, driven by increasing disposable income and consumer awareness [19][30]. Company Overview - Dongpeng Beverage was founded in 1994 in Guangdong and has expanded its production bases across major regions in China, achieving 100% coverage in city-level sales points [31][48]. - The company has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with the founder holding 50.72% of the shares as of June 30, 2023 [33]. Product Strategy - The company focuses on a product matrix centered around Dongpeng Special Drink, which includes various functional ingredients to meet diverse consumer needs [42]. - The pricing strategy positions Dongpeng Special Drink slightly below Red Bull, enhancing its appeal to cost-sensitive consumers [43]. Channel Strategy - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, utilizing both direct sales and a network of 2,796 distributors to enhance market penetration [5][48]. - The proportion of revenue from regions outside Guangdong has increased from 33% in 2017 to 60% in 2022, indicating successful national expansion [5][6]. Financial Outlook - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.989 to 2.061 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% to 43% [6]. - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2025 are 11.078 billion yuan, 14.174 billion yuan, and 17.515 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 30.25%, 27.95%, and 23.57% [6][7].