Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Tuhu-W (9690.HK) [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of no less than 6.6 billion RMB in 2023, with a Non-IFRS net profit of at least 450 million RMB. The second half of 2023 shows a stronger profit trend, with a total net profit of at least 70 million RMB and a Non-IFRS net profit of at least 240 million RMB [2]. - The company is benefiting from the recovery in travel demand and the expansion of its workshop store network, which has effectively increased its customer base. The improvement in business scale and structure has led to an increase in gross margin, alongside effective cost control [2][3]. - Tuhu has introduced new franchise policies for workshop stores in 2024, offering various incentives for different city tiers to encourage expansion. The company anticipates adding over 1,000 new workshop stores annually from 2024 to 2025 [2]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth from 13.475 billion RMB in 2023 to 18.379 billion RMB in 2025, with adjusted net profits increasing from 451 million RMB to 1.504 billion RMB during the same period [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 13.475 billion RMB in 2023 to 18.379 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 16.7%, 17.2%, and 16.4% respectively [3]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 451 million RMB in 2023 to 1.504 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 109.3% and 200.9% [3]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.55 RMB in 2023 to 1.84 RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 34 times to 10 times [3]. Balance Sheet Highlights - Total assets are expected to grow from 11.145 billion RMB in 2023 to 15.044 billion RMB in 2025, while total liabilities will increase from 28.804 billion RMB to 30.878 billion RMB [6]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents are projected to rise from 4.26 billion RMB in 2023 to 6.894 billion RMB in 2025 [6]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to turn positive, increasing from 948 million RMB in 2023 to 1.818 billion RMB in 2025 [7]. - The net increase in cash is projected to be 1.574 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.358 billion RMB in 2025 [7].
2023年业绩预告点评：2023扭亏为盈，2024全力支持低线城市加盟