CBC(SH:600132) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-02-25 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer (600132) is "Buy" with a target price of 84.39, down from the previous target of 95.89 [1][3][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected dividend payout ratio of around 90% for 2023-2025, reflecting strong cash flow [1][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023-2025 have been adjusted to 2.76, 2.91, and 3.15 respectively, considering operational improvements and cost assumptions [3][4]. - The report highlights that the main brand, Lebao, is expected to continue steady growth, while the company is also focusing on entering the high-end white beer market [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The report has revised the EPS forecasts for 2023-2025 to 2.76 (previously 2.95), 2.91 (previously 3.29), and 3.15 (previously 3.58) [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to 84.39 from 95.89, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 14,840 million, with a net profit of 1,335 million [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 50% and an operating profit margin of approximately 22% [11][12]. - The net asset return (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 66.5% in 2021 to 44.7% in 2025, indicating a potential decrease in profitability [11][12]. Market Position - Chongqing Beer is recognized as one of the top ten beer groups in China and has a significant market presence in the southwest region [6][12]. - The company is expected to leverage its strong brand culture and local market integration to enhance its competitive position [6][12].