Anjoy food(SH:603345) Tianfeng Securities·2024-02-26 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The frozen food industry is experiencing accelerated concentration, while the emerging prepared dish segment is in a high-growth phase [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the frozen food sector, leveraging its strong supply chain, product innovation, and extensive distribution channels to capture market share [2][3] - The prepared dish market is identified as a blue ocean opportunity, with significant growth potential expected to continue [1][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The frozen hot pot ingredient market has seen a slowdown in growth, with market size increasing from 41.1 billion yuan in 2017 to 52 billion yuan in 2021, reflecting a CAGR of 6% [1] - The frozen rice and noodle products market reached 78.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 6.06% from 2017 to 2021, indicating a mature stage with high concentration [1] - The prepared dish market reached 345.9 billion yuan in 2021, with an expected CAGR of 20% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a low concentration and high growth potential [1] Company Competitiveness - The company has established strong cost advantages through scale in traditional frozen products, with a market share of 9% in the frozen hot pot ingredient sector, significantly higher than its closest competitor [2] - The product development strategy focuses on localized and customized offerings, creating a diverse brand matrix that targets specific market segments [2] - The distribution network is well-established nationwide, with a high level of loyalty among distributors, and the company is adapting to new retail trends [2] Future Highlights - The company is focusing on the prepared dish segment as a second growth curve, employing a strategy of "self-production + OEM + acquisitions" to capture market share [3] - The company has 12 production bases, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.24% in 2022, and plans for further capacity expansion [3] - The company is leveraging its leading position in the frozen food market to enhance its product selection capabilities and channel stickiness [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.56 billion yuan, 1.83 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with growth rates of 41.8%, 17.5%, and 25.7% [4] - The report anticipates a "Davis double play" scenario, where the company's valuation may benefit from both operational improvements and market recovery [4]