Haohua Energy(SH:601101) Soochow Securities·2024-02-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare coal production capacity increment target, with expectations for improved dividend payouts due to market capitalization management [1] - The company has a strong cash flow and low short-term debt pressure, which supports its dividend expectations [1] - The coal sales are primarily based on long-term contracts, providing stability against price fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is backed by the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and focuses on coal production [27] - The company has a clear ownership structure, with the major shareholder holding 63.3% of the shares [27] 2. Coal Business: Capacity Expansion and Growth - The company has significantly increased its coal production capacity through acquisitions and expansions, with a total approved capacity of 19.3 million tons and an equity capacity of 13.28 million tons as of the end of 2023 [1][37] - The company aims to achieve a coal production capacity of 30 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [37] 3. Cost Control and Profitability - The company maintains a cost advantage in coal production, with a cost per ton lower than industry averages by 50-144 yuan [1][62] - The gross profit per ton of coal is reported at 261.6 yuan, indicating strong profitability [1][62] 4. Market Capitalization Management - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has emphasized market capitalization management, which is expected to enhance the company's dividend payout significantly [1] - The company's price-to-book ratio is currently at 0.93, indicating it is trading below its net asset value [1] 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.354 billion, 1.511 billion, and 1.545 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [1] - The report anticipates a dividend payout ratio increase to 60%, with expected cash dividends of 6.77 billion, 8.12 billion, and 9.48 billion yuan for the respective years [1]