iQIYI-Q4前瞻：内容ROI优化，预计利润稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for iQiyi (IQ) with a target price of $7.52 per ADS [4] Core Views - iQiyi's Q4 2023 revenue is expected to reach RMB 7.672 billion, up 1% YoY but down 4% QoQ [2] - Q4 2023 gross margin is projected at 28%, down 1pct YoY but up 1pct QoQ [2] - Operating profit for Q4 2023 is estimated at RMB 754 million, with an operating margin of 10% [2] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted at RMB 903 million, representing a 12% margin [2] - Net profit for Q4 2023 is expected to be RMB 445 million, with adjusted net profit at RMB 657 million, down 23% YoY but up 6% QoQ [2] Membership Business - Q4 2023 membership revenue is projected at RMB 4.798 billion, flat YoY and down 4% QoQ [2] - Average Revenue per Membership (ARM) is expected to reach RMB 15.9, up 12% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - Membership revenue is forecasted to grow 15% in 2023 and 5% in 2024 [10] Advertising Business - Q4 2023 advertising revenue is estimated at RMB 1.641 billion, up 6% YoY [2] - Advertising revenue is expected to grow 17% in 2023 and 4% in 2024 [10] Content Strategy - iQiyi continues to focus on self-produced content, with a structural shift towards top-tier content [2] - Content cost is projected to account for 51% of revenue in 2023 and 50% in 2024 [10] Financial Projections - 2023 revenue is forecasted at RMB 31.838 billion, up 10% YoY, with 2024 revenue expected to reach RMB 33.305 billion, up 5% YoY [10] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected at RMB 2.813 billion in 2023 and RMB 3.448 billion in 2024 [10] - The company is valued at 15x 2024 PE, implying a fair value of$ 7.52 per ADS [10] Industry Comparison - Compared to Netflix and Disney, iQiyi's valuation is relatively lower, with a 2024 PE of 15x versus Netflix's 33.1x and Disney's 23.5x [13]