煤铝双主业，盈利能力较强

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.2 yuan, based on an 8x PE multiple for 2024 [2][4] Core Views - The company operates in both coal and aluminum sectors, with a well-established industrial chain and strong profitability [1][10] - The company's coal business has significant competitive advantages, with high profitability expected to continue due to tight supply-demand dynamics [1][18] - The aluminum sector faces limited supply growth domestically and internationally, while demand remains resilient, especially from emerging sectors like new energy [2][22] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profits are primarily driven by aluminum ingots and coal, with significant profit growth due to rising commodity prices [1][14] - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 5.58 billion yuan in 2023, 6.58 billion yuan in 2024, and 6.73 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -26.34%, +18.06%, and +2.25% respectively [2][42] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased significantly from over 80% in 2016-2019 to 63% in Q3 2023, indicating improved financial health [1][16] Coal Business - The company has a coal production capacity of 8.55 million tons, with 3.8 million tons produced in H1 2023 [1][10] - The company's coal products, mainly anthracite and lean coal, have a competitive advantage in terms of quality and location, with a ton gross profit of 766 yuan in 2022, ranking among the top in the industry [18][19] - The coal market is expected to remain tight due to limited supply growth and strong demand from the steel and metallurgical industries [1][20] Aluminum Business - The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.7 million tons, with 800,000 tons in Xinjiang and 900,000 tons in Yunnan [1][10] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling at 45.09 million tons, with limited growth expected in the medium term [2][21] - Demand for aluminum is driven by traditional sectors like construction and transportation, as well as emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which are expected to contribute 3-4% to domestic aluminum demand in 2023 [2][25] Industry Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained, with limited new capacity additions, especially in Europe due to energy crises [2][25] - Domestic aluminum demand is supported by strong growth in the new energy sector, particularly photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which are expected to drive aluminum demand growth [2][25][36] - The aluminum market is expected to remain tight, with low inventory levels becoming the norm due to increased aluminum water conversion rates [22][23] Valuation and Forecast - The company's current market value corresponds to a PE ratio of 8x for 2023, 6x for 2024, and 6x for 2025 [2][42] - The report forecasts the company's revenue to be 38.13 billion yuan in 2023, 38.72 billion yuan in 2024, and 39.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -10.7%, +1.6%, and +1.1% respectively [42]