国际化再加速，美国超越中国成为产品收入最大贡献地区

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with target prices of $275 (US), HK$165 (HK), and RMB 175 (CH) [1] Core Views - The US has surpassed China as the largest contributor to product revenue, driven by strong growth of Zanubrutinib in 4Q23 [1] - Cost control measures are showing initial results, with operational efficiency expected to improve further in 2024 [1] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, supported by faster-than-expected internationalization [1] Revenue and Growth - 4Q23 US revenue reached $310 million, a 101.5$267 million [1] - US revenue accounted for 49.4% of total revenue in 4Q23 and 45.9% for the full year 2023, up 8.5 and 10.4 percentage points YoY, respectively [1] - Full-year 2023 product sales increased by 74.5% YoY, while operating expenses grew only 12.5% [1] Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses grew at 1/6th the rate of product sales in 2023, compared to 1/5th in 2022, indicating improved efficiency [1] - R&D expenses are expected to rise slightly in 2024, while sales and administrative expenses will increase moderately [1] - The company plans to maintain a lean commercial team for PD-1 overseas, keeping operating expenses under control [1] 2024 Catalysts - Zanubrutinib's market expansion in the US, including the anticipated approval of the FL indication in March 2024 [1] - Potential approvals for Tislelizumab in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (US) and non-small cell lung cancer (Europe) [1] - Data readouts for Sonrotoclax (BCL-2) in MM, MDS, and AML, as well as BTK CDAC in refractory MCL and CLL [1] - Phase II data for Tislelizumab combinations with OX40, HPK1, LAG3, and TIM3 in various cancers [1] Valuation and Financials - 2024 and 2025 net loss forecasts narrowed by 0.5% and 16.5%, respectively, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 8.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0%, resulting in a market cap of $28.7 billion [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from$3.09 billion in 2024 to $4.43 billion in 2026, with a net profit of$103 million expected in 2026 [5] Market Performance - Current stock prices: $160.3 (US), HK$99.1 (HK), and RMB 125.0 (CH) [2][3][4] - Potential upside: +72% (US), +66% (HK), and +40% (CH) [2][3][4] - 52-week price ranges: $133.0-$272.5 (US), HK$82.7-HK$167.3 (HK), and RMB 98.5-RMB 170.5 (CH) [2][3][4]