新点软件2023年业绩快报点评：悲观预期基本反应充分，静待业绩回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 33.82 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 40.37 for 2024 [7][27]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the government IT sector, with a focus on smart procurement, smart governance, and digital construction [27]. - The report indicates that the company's performance has been under pressure, but pessimistic expectations have largely been reflected in the market [27]. - The company emphasizes cost control, and once revenue rebounds, there is potential for significant profit elasticity [27]. - The forecast for 2023 shows a projected total revenue of 24.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.47%, with a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan, also down [27]. - The report highlights that external factors remain a major pressure point, but the market has recognized these challenges, leading to a sufficient reflection of pessimistic expectations [27]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 2,824 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 2,444 million yuan for 2023, and expected revenues of 2,599 million yuan and 2,897 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [27]. - The net profit for 2022 was 573 million yuan, with projections of 191 million yuan for 2023, and expected profits of 276 million yuan and 396 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [27]. - The report notes a decline in the EBIT margin from 19.1% in 2021 to a projected 6.6% in 2023, with expectations of recovery in subsequent years [27]. Valuation Methodology - The report utilizes both PE and PS valuation methods, predicting an EPS of 0.84 yuan for 2024, leading to a reasonable valuation of 28.01 yuan per share based on the average PE of comparable companies [25][6]. - The average PS for comparable companies in 2024 is projected at 5.03, with the company’s estimated total revenue of 25.99 billion yuan [6][18]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a price range of 19.68 to 71.00 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 25.40 yuan [2][27]. - The report indicates that the company has a market capitalization of 8,382 million yuan [2].