公司简评报告：优质路产网络赋能业绩表现，高分红比例提升绝对收益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company, China Merchants Highway (招商公路), is the largest comprehensive highway investment and operation service provider in China, with a total operating mileage of 13,060 kilometers as of June 2023, ranking first among operating expressway companies [3] - The company's operating performance is stable, with a steady cost structure and increased traffic volume boosting profitability. Revenue from 2018 to the first three quarters of 2023 was 67.59, 81.85, 70.69, 86.26, 82.97, and 65.75 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 39.1, 43.27, 22.23, 49.73, 48.61, and 43.63 billion yuan [3] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 55%, enhancing returns for investors. The actual dividend payout ratios from 2020 to 2022 were 49.20%, 42.99%, and 52.68% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from economic recovery, leading to increased traffic volume and revenue growth. The forecasted net profit for 2023-2025 is 50.3 billion, 60.2 billion, and 64.3 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.8, 11.6, and 10.8 [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Merchants Highway operates the longest and most comprehensive highway network in China, covering 22 provinces and municipalities, primarily in economically developed and densely populated areas [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown fluctuations, with a notable increase in traffic volume and toll revenue in 2023 due to rising demand for passenger and freight transport [3] - The revenue breakdown for 2023 indicates that investment operations account for 72.89%, traffic technology for 19.57%, smart transportation for 4.74%, and ecological investment for 2.80% [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 83.0 billion yuan in 2022 to 103.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 25.1%. Net profit is expected to increase from 48.6 billion yuan in 2022 to 50.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [4]