SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Changjiang Securities·2024-02-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company released a performance report indicating an expected revenue of 39.703 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.072 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.2% and +9% respectively. For Q4 2023, the expected revenue is 10.501 billion yuan, with a net profit of 936 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4% and 73% respectively [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a slight decline in revenue for 2023 but expects a significant increase in net profit. The Q4 performance is particularly strong, with substantial growth in net profit [5][6]. Product Segments - Cultural Paper: Prices have risen, leading to an expected increase in profit per ton in Q4. The market prices for double glue paper and coated paper increased by 500-600 yuan per ton from September to December last year [6]. - Boxboard Paper: The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, with stable pricing and profitability expected to improve due to a higher proportion of high-end products [6]. - Dissolving Pulp: Prices have increased more than costs, with an expected rise in profit per ton in Q4. The market price for dissolving pulp rose by nearly 350 yuan per ton compared to Q3 2023 [6]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its production capacity, with a clear addition of 300,000 tons of household paper by 2024-2025. This is expected to drive double-digit sales growth in 2024 [6][7]. Profitability Forecast - The historical peak profit per ton is between 600-700 yuan, with an expected central profit of around 400 yuan. The company forecasts net profits of 3.072 billion yuan, 3.668 billion yuan, and 4.208 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [7].