事件点评：发布“质量回报双提升”行动方案，彰显发展信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company has launched a "Quality Return Dual Improvement" action plan, focusing on its core mineral business with significant growth in revenue from 2019 to 2022. The company emphasizes shareholder returns with a high dividend policy expected to continue [2] - The lithium segment shows a strong cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes, with the Marmitsuo project set to ramp up production. The company plans to produce 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2023, with a production cost of 39,000 yuan per ton, positioning it favorably in the global lithium cost curve [2] - The potassium segment is highlighted as the second-largest potassium fertilizer producer in China, with plans to double production capacity through overseas projects in Laos [2] - The copper segment benefits from a stake in Jilong Copper Industry, with production capacity expected to increase significantly in the coming years, enhancing investment returns from this segment [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - The company has established a production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate at the Chahar Salt Lake, with plans to produce 12,000 tons in 2023. The average production cost is 39,000 yuan per ton, which is competitive globally [2] - The Marmitsuo project is expected to contribute significantly to production, with a planned capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the first phase of 50,000 tons is set to commence by the end of 2024 [2] Potassium - The company is the second-largest potassium fertilizer producer in China, with a production capacity of 2 million tons per year. In 2023, it aims for a production target of 1 million tons and a sales target of 1.2 million tons [2] - The company is expanding its operations in Laos, with a planned capacity of 2 million tons per year, which will double its total production capacity [2] Copper - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper Industry, with production capacity expected to rise from 46,000 tons to 185,000 tons after the completion of expansion projects. The net profit from copper production in 2023 was 4.32 billion yuan [3] - The second phase of the Jilong project has been approved, with completion expected by the end of 2025, further increasing copper production capacity [3] Dividends - The company has a strong focus on investor returns, distributing cash dividends of 4.51 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, representing 79.7% and 42.3% of net profit, respectively. Future dividends are expected to be no less than 30% of distributable profits [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.64 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 3.05 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 19, and 15 times based on the closing price on March 1 [2][4]