Xingfa Chem(SH:600141) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-03 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][29]. Core Views - The increase in organic silicon and monoammonium phosphate prices is expected to continue improving the company's profitability [3][4]. - The organic silicon price surge is attributed to the completion of pre-sale orders and the upcoming traditional demand peak in March, leading to a strong price support from the industry [4][7]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.36 billion to 1.46 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 75.05% to 76.76%, but slightly exceeding previous expectations [4][29]. Summary by Relevant Sections Organic Silicon Market - Organic silicon prices have risen significantly, with DMC quoted at 16,400 yuan/ton, D4 at 16,700 yuan/ton, and overall increases ranging from 800 to 1,900 yuan/ton [3][4][7]. - The organic silicon market has seen a recovery from a prolonged downturn, with expectations for improved profitability due to reduced inventory pressure and increased demand [4][7][8]. Phosphate Market - Phosphate rock prices remain strong, with the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei at 1,030 yuan/ton as of March 2, 2024 [4][24]. - The demand for agricultural products is expected to boost the phosphate chemical industry, with the company benefiting from its self-owned mines, enhancing cost advantages [4][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported a slight improvement in its financial performance in Q4 2023, with a projected net profit of 426 million to 526 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 44.0% to 54.7%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31.0% to 61.8% [4][5][29]. - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with projected net profits of 1.406 billion yuan and 2.019 billion yuan, respectively [29][31]. Growth Projects - The company is advancing multiple projects in new materials and new energy sectors, including a 300,000-ton/year phosphoric acid iron project and a 30,000-ton/year lithium dihydrogen phosphate project [28][29]. - These projects are expected to contribute to the company's long-term growth and profitability [28][29].