HKEX(00388) 光大证券·2024-03-03 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's investment income performance is strong, and its diversified strategy continues to show results [1] - The company's revenue and profit performance for the full year is impressive, mainly benefiting from record-high investment income [5] - The new listing mechanism for Specialized Technology Companies is favorable for new economy listings, with nearly 70% of new listings in 2023 being new economy companies [6] - The company is a rare investment target with both offensive and defensive characteristics, and the "Overweight" rating is maintained [6] Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 1.268 billion [2] - Total market capitalization: HKD 304.281 billion [2] - One-year low/high (HKD): 219.4 / 354.4 [2] - Three-month turnover rate: 38.8% [2] Performance Highlights - Full-year revenue and other income: HKD 20.52 billion, up 11.2% YoY [4] - Full-year net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 11.86 billion, up 17.7% YoY [4] - EBITDA margin: 73%, up 1 percentage point YoY [4] - Q4 revenue and other income: HKD 4.86 billion, down 6.6% YoY [4] - Q4 net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 2.6 billion, down 12.8% YoY [4] - Q4 EBITDA margin: 68%, down 6 percentage points YoY [4] Investment Income - Full-year investment income: HKD 4.96 billion, up 265.7% YoY, accounting for 24.2% of revenue and 41.8% of profit [5] - Q4 investment income: up 14.9% YoY [5] - Fund investment income: HKD 1.49 billion, turning from a loss to a profit YoY [5] - Margin and clearing fund investment income: HKD 3.47 billion, up 147.3% YoY [5] Trading Volume - Average daily trading volume of equity securities on the Stock Exchange: HKD 93.2 billion, down 14.5% YoY [5] - Average daily trading volume of derivatives: HKD 11.8 billion, down 25.8% YoY [5] - Northbound and southbound trading volumes: RMB 108.3 billion and HKD 31.1 billion, up 7.9% and down 1.9% YoY respectively [5] - Average daily trading volume of bond northbound trading: RMB 40 billion, up 24.2% YoY [5] New Listings - Total new listings in 2023: 73, down 19% YoY [6] - Funds raised: HKD 46.3 billion [6] - New economy companies accounted for 68% of new listings [6] - 72 listing applications pending at the end of 2023 [6] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: HKD 22.62 billion, up 10.3% YoY [8] - 2025E revenue: HKD 23.432 billion, up 3.6% YoY [8] - 2026E revenue: HKD 24.457 billion, flat YoY [8] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 12.836 billion, up 8.2% YoY [8] - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 13.365 billion, up 4.1% YoY [8] - 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 13.818 billion, up 3.4% YoY [8] - 2024E EPS: HKD 10.12 [8] - 2025E EPS: HKD 10.54 [8] - 2026E EPS: HKD 10.90 [8] - 2024E P/E: 24X [7] Business Outlook - If inflation in major economies slows and central banks end monetary tightening cycles, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue to recover [6] - The optimization of listing conditions for new economy companies such as internet and biotech, as well as the implementation of favorable measures such as the Stock Connect and the HKD-RMB dual-counter model, are expected to drive the company's performance and investment sentiment [6] - The diversified business model helps to smooth performance fluctuations [6]