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坚守高端化战略,推动平均售价和利润率双增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC with a target price of HK$18.90, down from HK$22.30, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HK$13.58 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a solid performance in 2023 despite a challenging environment, with organic revenue growth of 11.1% and normalized net profit growth of 6.8% to US$917 million [5][9]. - The company is focusing on a premiumization strategy, which is expected to drive both average selling prices and profit margins upward [5][6]. - The outlook for 2024 is positive, with stable growth anticipated in the Chinese market and continued recovery in South Korea [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was US$6,856 million, with a projected increase to US$7,116 million in 2024 and US$7,631 million in 2025 [7][14]. - The normalized net profit for 2023 was US$917 million, expected to rise to US$1,061 million in 2024 and US$1,224 million in 2025 [7][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was US$0.07, projected to increase to US$0.08 in 2024 and US$0.09 in 2025 [7][14]. Market Performance - The company reported a volume growth of 4.6% in 2023, with expectations of a slight increase of 1.1% in 2024 [8][9]. - The average selling price in 2023 was US$739, with a forecasted increase to US$758 in 2024 and US$793 in 2025 [8][10]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 50.4%, expected to improve to 51.6% in 2024 and 53.0% in 2025 [8][10]. Strategic Focus - Budweiser APAC is committed to its high-end product strategy, which has led to a significant increase in the sales volume of premium products [5][6]. - The management's assessment of the Chinese market performance has alleviated investor concerns regarding price competition, with a focus on premiumization continuing to gain traction [5][6]. - The company has implemented price increases in the South Korean market, which is expected to enhance average selling prices and profit margins in 2024 [6][9].