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推广加盟模式,打开多元扩张空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao [1] Core Views - Haidilao is adopting a franchise model to enhance operational efficiency and expand its market presence while maintaining service quality [3] - The company is expected to have significant growth potential in the hot pot market, which is projected to reach approximately 500 billion yuan in 2022, with low brand and chain penetration [3] - The shift to a franchise model allows Haidilao to reduce operational costs and improve financial metrics, with a focus on revenue sharing from franchisees [3] - For 2024, the report anticipates stable turnover rates and the opening of 70-80 new stores, alongside a potential increase in dividend payouts [3] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,039 million yuan in 2022 to 52,826 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,638 million yuan in 2023 to 5,736 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 168.66% and 11.50% respectively [2] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2023 to 1.03 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Market Data - The closing price of Haidilao is 13.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 77,924.52 million HKD [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43 in 2022 to 12 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][6] Operational Insights - The franchise model is expected to leverage local resources, enhancing brand penetration and operational consistency across new outlets [3] - The company aims to diversify its brand portfolio with new concepts like "Hi Lao" and "Miao Shixiong Stir-fried Chicken," which will contribute to long-term growth [3]