纯粹的制冷剂龙头，落定三代高配额

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Sanmei Co., Ltd. (三美股份) [2][7] Core Views - Sanmei Co., Ltd. is a leading domestic refrigerant manufacturer focusing on second and third-generation refrigerants, with a strong market position expected to benefit from the upcoming industry upcycle [4][15] - The company has secured a significant share of the third-generation refrigerant quotas, which positions it favorably in a tightening supply environment [5][7] - The report anticipates a rebound in the company's performance as the industry enters a new upcycle, driven by supply constraints and rising prices for key refrigerants [6][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sanmei Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and has focused on refrigerants since divesting its upstream fluorite powder processing business in 2016 [4][15] - The company went public in 2019 and has since expanded into fluoropolymer products, enhancing its integrated fluorochemical layout [4][15] Market Position and Quotas - In 2024, Sanmei Co. secured significant quotas for mainstream refrigerants R32, R125, R134a, and R143a, accounting for 16% of the national total [4][5] - The company ranks second nationally in terms of quota allocation, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [4][5] Industry Cycle and Demand - The report outlines a cyclical nature of the fluorochemical industry, with expectations for a new upcycle starting in 2024 due to supply constraints and rising prices [4][20] - The demand for R32 is expected to grow as it replaces older refrigerants like R22 and R410A, with a projected supply gap of 0.5-1.5 million tons from 2024 to 2026 [7][33] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Sanmei Co. are projected at 35.33 billion, 43.70 billion, and 52.10 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [6][7] - Net profit estimates are 3.13 billion, 7.05 billion, and 8.11 billion yuan for the same years, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [6][7] Supply and Pricing Dynamics - The report highlights that the total supply of HFCs will be capped at 746,000 tons in 2024, with a significant portion allocated for export [5][33] - The pricing of refrigerants is expected to rise, with R32 prices increasing over 40% since the beginning of 2024, reflecting tightening supply conditions [4][31]