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2023年业绩点评：全年营收高速增长，产品销售增速大幅领先行业
CELHCelsius(CELH) 国海证券·2024-03-04 16:00

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Celsius Holdings (CELH) for the first time [3][12] Core Views - Celsius achieved rapid revenue growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.32billion,ayear−on−yearincreaseof101.71.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.7% [3] - The company's net profit turned positive at 182 million, compared to a loss of 200millionin2022,withanetprofitmarginof13.8200 million in 2022, with a net profit margin of 13.8% [3] - Gross margin improved to 48.0%, up 6.6 percentage points from 2022 [3] - Diluted EPS was 0.77, compared to -0.88in2022[3]SalesPerformance−Celsius′salesgrowthsignificantlyoutpacedtheenergydrinkcategory,with4−weeksalesup112.30.88 in 2022 [3] Sales Performance - Celsius' sales growth significantly outpaced the energy drink category, with 4-week sales up 112.3%, 13-week sales up 126.6%, and 26-week sales up 142.3% [5] - The company's US market share reached 10.5% in 2023, more than double the 4.9% share in 2022 [5] - Celsius was the top-selling energy drink on Amazon for 14 weeks ending December 30, 2023, capturing 19.7% of Amazon's energy drink sales [10] Regional and Distribution Analysis - North America accounted for 95.9% of total revenue in 2023, with sales of 1.26 billion, up 104.6% year-on-year [7] - PepsiCo's contribution to total revenue increased to 59.4% in 2023 from 22.2% in 2022, a 37.2 percentage point increase [7] - PepsiCo accounted for 69.0% of accounts receivable in 2023, up from 47.6% in 2022 [7] Financial Performance and Projections - Operating expenses decreased by 14.4% to 370millionin2023,withtheoperatingexpenseratiodroppingto27.8370 million in 2023, with the operating expense ratio dropping to 27.8% from 65.6% in 2022 [25] - Revenue is projected to grow to 1.98 billion in 2024, 2.78billionin2025,and2.78 billion in 2025, and 3.68 billion in 2026, representing growth rates of 50%, 40%, and 32% respectively [12][26] - Net income attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 285millionin2024,285 million in 2024, 413 million in 2025, and 558millionin2026[12][26]ValuationMetrics−AsofMarch4,2024,thestockpricewas558 million in 2026 [12][26] Valuation Metrics - As of March 4, 2024, the stock price was 86.84, with a P/E ratio of 71 for 2024, 49 for 2025, and 36 for 2026 [12][26] - The company's market capitalization stood at $20.22 billion as of March 4, 2024 [2]