HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-05 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - Haidilao has officially opened its franchise model, which is expected to accelerate its expansion moderately. The company believes that introducing a franchise model will help achieve further expansion while maintaining operational efficiency. The franchisees must meet specific criteria, including financial stability and management capabilities [1]. - The company has shown strong post-pandemic recovery, with a forecasted revenue of over 41.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.4 billion yuan for 2023, marking a historical high. The overall table turnover rate in Q4 2023 is approaching the levels seen in the same period of 2019, indicating strong operational performance [1][2]. - Haidilao's cautious approach to expansion through franchising reflects a strategic shift in the restaurant industry, where many brands are moving towards a "direct + franchise" model. This model allows for rapid and efficient expansion with lower capital requirements compared to fully owned stores [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Haidilao are as follows: - 2023: 41,063 million yuan - 2024: 45,682 million yuan (up 11.2%) - 2025: 50,497 million yuan (up 10.5%) [2][6]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,547 million yuan - 2024: 5,258 million yuan (up 15.6%) - 2025: 6,050 million yuan (up 15.1%) [2][6]. - The company aims to maintain a PE ratio of 15 for 2023, 13 for 2024, and 11 for 2025, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [1][2]. Market Position - As of the report date, Haidilao has over 1,400 stores nationwide, with plans for further openings, including a new sub-brand "Hailao Hotpot" aimed at offering high cost-performance options [1][2]. - The company is positioned well within the competitive landscape, with a focus on maintaining quality and efficiency while exploring new business models through franchising [1][2].