TSPGC(SH:601000) Xinda Securities·2024-03-05 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tangshan Port (601000.SH) [2][4]. Core Views - Tangshan Port is a key dry bulk port in North China, with a clear business line that underpins steady performance and dividend leadership. The company primarily engages in the loading, unloading, and storage of bulk goods such as iron ore, coal, and steel, contributing approximately 80% to its performance [2][10]. - The company benefits from stable cash flow driven by the steel industry and coal transportation, with limited cash expenditure pressure, allowing for sustained dividend capability [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Tangshan Port Overview - Tangshan Port has become an important port for importing iron ore and coking coal, as well as a major port for steel exports and coal transportation [10]. - The port's hinterland includes Tangshan City and extends to regions such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi [10]. 2. Cargo Throughput and Financial Performance - The cargo throughput has shown a steady increase, with a total throughput of 207 million tons in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.25% [12]. - In the first three quarters of 2023, the throughput reached 175 million tons, up 12.76% year-on-year, driven by increased demand from hinterland enterprises [12]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 6.02 billion, 6.20 billion, and 6.31 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7.1%, 2.9%, and 1.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.09 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.30 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 23.5%, 7.1%, and 3.2% [4]. 4. Cash Flow and Dividend Capability - The company achieved a net operating cash flow of 2.407 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 25.34%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.83% from 2019 to 2022 [3][32]. - The company has maintained a stable annual profit distribution of 0.20 yuan per share since 2020, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 4.6% based on the closing price on March 5, 2024 [3][4]. 5. Industry Context and Port Integration - The report highlights the ongoing integration of Hebei Province's ports, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and overall performance [25][28]. - The restructuring of Hebei Port Group has led to a significant increase in cargo throughput, reaching 795 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [25][28].