传统货代业务转型，跨境电商物流成长可期

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.12 CNY per share based on a 12x PE valuation for 2024 [29][58]. Core Insights - The company has established a leading position in the international freight forwarding industry, ranking 14th and 16th globally in air and sea freight forwarding, respectively, and 4th in China [39]. - The cross-border e-commerce logistics segment has become the company's third-largest revenue source, with a revenue increase of 1390% from 2019 to 2022, although profit margins have been declining compared to traditional freight forwarding [2][20]. - The company has effectively integrated its traditional freight forwarding and cross-border e-commerce logistics operations, creating synergies that enhance its competitive edge [5][56]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics - The company has developed a comprehensive cross-border e-commerce logistics service chain, which includes international postal air letters, concentrated shipping lines, and various supporting services [1]. - Revenue from cross-border e-commerce logistics reached 3.437 billion CNY in 2022, with a CAGR of 146.06% from 2019 to 2022, although the profit margin has decreased to 8.83% in 2023H1 [2][20]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its capabilities in this area, including the purchase of a 70% stake in Jiacheng International Logistics [7][56]. Other Business Segments - The special logistics segment, primarily focused on high-voltage power equipment transportation, has maintained a stable revenue growth with a CAGR of 2.48% from 2016 to 2022, although revenue decreased by 36.16% in 2022 [12]. - The engineering logistics segment has seen significant growth, with a CAGR of 10.48% from 2014 to 2022, driven by infrastructure demands in Belt and Road Initiative countries [13]. - The warehousing logistics segment has shown stable revenue growth, with a CAGR of 10.15% from 2014 to 2022, and has recovered to pre-pandemic profit margins [40]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.542 billion CNY, 16.608 billion CNY, and 19.725 billion CNY for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -34%, +14%, and +19% [29][57]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 800 million CNY, 1 billion CNY, and 1.3 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of -10%, +26%, and +29% [29][57].