火电龙头迎来价值重估，风光板块有望持续扩张

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company, as a leading player in traditional thermal power, is actively transitioning towards green and low-carbon energy, with significant growth in wind and solar segments [3][18]. - The introduction of capacity pricing is expected to lead to a revaluation of thermal power, enhancing profitability stability [10][35]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth and profitability recovery in the coming years, driven by high electricity prices and declining coal prices [3][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a major independent power producer in China, primarily engaged in thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power generation, with a focus on transitioning to a comprehensive energy company [18]. - As of Q3 2023, the company had a total installed capacity of 72.25 GW, with a significant portion in coal power [27][28]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 28.35 billion yuan in Q3 2023, a year-on-year increase of 271% [3][31]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023-2025 are 124.2 billion, 126.7 billion, and 132.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.285 billion, 3.92 billion, and 5.004 billion yuan [4][11]. Market Dynamics - The average on-grid electricity price for 2023 is 466.41 yuan per megawatt-hour, with expectations for continued high pricing in 2024 [3][28]. - The company’s coal consumption per unit of electricity has decreased, improving operational efficiency [35][38]. Growth Drivers - The wind and solar segments are expected to expand rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64.03% from 2023 to 2025 [3][11]. - The company plans to add 30 GW of new wind and solar capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][9]. Valuation - The report estimates a target market value of 685.56 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a target price of 3.70 yuan per share [11][12].