PDH(SH:600048) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments, with a target price of 20.66 CNY, while the current price is 9.38 CNY [5][9]. Core Insights - In the first two months of 2024, the company's sales amount decreased by 44%, indicating that the overall real estate market is still stabilizing. The sales area and amount for February were 950,000 square meters and 15.62 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 53.4% and 54.4% [3]. - The company is cautiously investing in land due to the instability in sales, but the land acquisition equity ratio remains high at 90% [3]. - The cash dividend rate is expected to double in the next two years, with the dividend yield rising to approximately 4.7% [3]. Financial Summary - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 1.01 CNY, 1.09 CNY, and 1.24 CNY, respectively [3]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is estimated at 347.147 billion CNY, with a projected decrease of 4% in 2024 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 12.037 billion CNY in 2023, increasing to 13.028 billion CNY in 2024 [4]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The operating profit margin is projected to be 8.9% in 2023 and 8.6% in 2024, with a net asset return rate of 5.9% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 9.15 in 2023 and decrease to 8.45 in 2024 [4]. - The dividend yield is projected to be 3.8% in 2023 and increase to 4.7% in 2024 [4].