动态跟踪：五大航道稳步发展，财务状况保持稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months with expected investment returns leading the market benchmark by more than 15% [7] Core Views - The company's five major business segments (property development, commercial investment, long-term rental apartments, property management, and smart construction) are developing steadily, contributing to stable performance and cash flow [1][2] - Despite short-term pressure from the real estate market downturn, the company's sales layout and product structure are gradually upgrading to better adapt to industry trends [1] - The company's financial position remains robust, with a reasonable debt maturity structure and manageable short-term debt pressure [2] Financial Performance and Valuation - Revenue is expected to decline from RMB 211.17 billion in 2023E to RMB 178.39 billion in 2025E, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% in 2025E [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from RMB 14.46 billion in 2023E to RMB 16.13 billion in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in 2025E [1] - The basic EPS is projected to increase from RMB 2.14 in 2023E to RMB 2.38 in 2025E, while the core EPS is expected to rise from RMB 1.97 in 2023E to RMB 2.24 in 2025E [1] - The P/E ratio (basic) is estimated to decrease from 4.09X in 2023E to 3.67X in 2025E, indicating a potential undervaluation [1] Sales and Market Position - In 2023, the company achieved sales of RMB 173.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, but the decline narrowed by 16.6 percentage points compared to 2022 [1] - The sales price per square meter increased by 4.09% year-on-year in 2023, driven by the promotion of high-end products and strengthened core city layout [1] - In the first two months of 2024, the company's sales amounted to RMB 12.59 billion, ranking ninth in the CRIC sales ranking, despite a 55.2% year-on-year decrease due to industry-wide demand decline [1] Land Acquisition Strategy - In 2023, the company acquired land worth RMB 35.1 billion, with a land acquisition to sales ratio of 20.2%, focusing on high-value core second-tier cities such as Xi'an, Chengdu, and Suzhou [2] - The company's land acquisition in first-tier and core second-tier cities accounted for 23.7% and 70.3% of the total, respectively, laying a solid foundation for future sales [2] Operational Income and Business Segments - The company's operational income (excluding tax) reached RMB 24.87 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with RMB 12.94 billion from operations and RMB 11.93 billion from services [2] - The five major business segments are showing good synergy, with operational income playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing the company's performance and cash flow [2] Debt and Credit Management - In 2023, the company successfully issued two medium-term notes guaranteed by China Bond Insurance, totaling RMB 2.3 billion, with coupon rates of 3.50% and 3.66% [2] - The company has cleared its overseas debt due in 2024, and its short-term debt pressure is relatively manageable [2] Market Data and Valuation - The company's current share price is HKD 9.63, with a total market capitalization of HKD 65.17 billion [3] - The stock's 52-week low and high are HKD 7.92 and HKD 23.01, respectively, with a 3-month turnover rate of 20.92% [3]