Vipshop(VIPS) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][2][8] Core Views - Vipshop's Q4 2023 revenue and profit performance were strong, with the company announcing its first-ever dividend [1][5] - Revenue in Q4 2023 reached 34.7 billion yuan, a 9% YoY increase, with product revenue at 32.4 billion yuan (+8% YoY) and other revenue at 2.2 billion yuan (+21% YoY) [1][5] - GMV grew 22% YoY to 66.4 billion yuan in Q4 2023, with active buyers increasing 2% YoY to 48.5 million [1][5] - Non-GAAP net profit in Q4 2023 was 3.2 billion yuan, a 45% YoY increase, with net margin rising from 7.3% to 9.3% [1][5] - SuperVIP members reached 7.6 million, contributing 46% of online transaction value in Q4 2023 [1][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 112.856 billion yuan, a 9.4% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of 9.468 billion yuan (+38.5% YoY) [3] - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 118.861 billion yuan (+5.3% YoY), 126.152 billion yuan (+6.1% YoY), and 133.893 billion yuan (+6.1% YoY) respectively [3][8] - Adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 9.518 billion yuan (+0.5% YoY), 10.482 billion yuan (+10.1% YoY), and 10.727 billion yuan (+2.3% YoY) respectively [3][8] - ROE for 2023 was 25.6%, expected to decline to 20.5% in 2024 and 15.8% by 2026 [3] Shareholder Returns - Total shareholder return in 2023 was approximately 9%, including dividends and buybacks [2][5] - The company announced its first-ever dividend of $250 million, with a dividend yield of 2.5% [2][5] - $340 million worth of shares were repurchased in Q4 2023, with $548 million remaining in the $1 billion buyback program valid until March 31, 2025 [2][5] Valuation - Current stock price implies a 2024 PE of 8x, with a target PE range of 9-10x [8] - Target price adjusted to $22-24, implying 13%-26% upside potential [8] - 2024-2026 revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR estimated at 6% [8]