PJRC(SH:600395) Xinda Securities·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [26][40]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading coking coal producer in Southwest China, with excellent growth potential in its coal business, planning to build and expand coal production capacity exceeding 7 million tons per year. The integration of coal and power generation businesses is expected to drive significant performance improvements in 2024 [2][16]. - The company is actively developing its power generation business, focusing on a combined approach of wind, solar, and thermal energy. Several projects are expected to contribute to performance in 2024, including the Panjiang New Light and Panjiang Puding coal-fired power projects [10][34]. - The impact of recent safety incidents is expected to be largely mitigated, allowing for a stabilization and recovery of performance in 2024 [13][37]. Summary by Sections Coal Production Capacity - The company has a current coal production capacity of 22.2 million tons per year, with plans to increase this to 25.2 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The ongoing projects include the Fa'er No. 2 Mine and Yangshan Mine, which are progressing well [5][6][30]. - The company benefits from a relatively independent coal market in Guizhou, which provides strong performance resilience due to lower price volatility [8][9]. Power Generation Development - The company is advancing its renewable energy projects, having secured construction indicators for 3.75 million kilowatts of renewable energy capacity. By the end of 2023, significant milestones have been achieved in solar power projects, with expectations for further contributions in 2024 [11][34]. - The company aims to achieve full capacity grid connection for its renewable projects by April 2024, which is anticipated to enhance revenue streams [11][35]. Recovery from Safety Incidents - Following a significant safety incident in September 2023, the company has resumed operations at affected mines, with expectations for a recovery in production and sales in 2024. The incident led to a notable decline in production and profitability in 2023, but the outlook for 2024 is optimistic [13][37][38]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 709 million yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios indicating potential for growth [27][40].