YISHENG(002458) 民生证券·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its leading position in the poultry breeding industry and potential benefits from the industry's upward cycle [4][19] Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in 2023, with annual revenue of 3.22 billion yuan, up 52.7% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 540 million yuan, reversing from a loss [2] - The company's self-developed "Yisheng 909" small white-feathered chicken shows stable performance and economic benefits, with sales reaching 80 million units in 2023, up 0.5% YoY [3] - The company aims to achieve annual sales of 1 billion units of commercial white-feathered chicken chicks and "Yisheng 909" chicks by 2025, supported by expanding parent stock and commercial chick production [3] - The poultry industry is expected to remain in an upward cycle due to ongoing shortages in overseas breeding stock imports, which will support prices for both parent and commercial chicks [16][17] Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, the company sold 650 million chicks (parent and commercial), up 12.3% YoY, with an average price of 4.1 yuan per chick, up 47.6% YoY [16] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 884 million, 1.011 billion, and 854 million yuan, respectively, with EPS of 0.80, 0.91, and 0.77 yuan [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 3.801 billion, 4.114 billion, and 4.259 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with growth rates of 17.9%, 8.2%, and 3.5%, respectively [7] - Gross margin is projected to remain strong, at 36.07%, 36.65%, and 31.41% for 2024-2026, respectively [21] Industry Analysis - The poultry industry entered a high-growth phase in 2023 due to shortages in overseas breeding stock imports since May 2022, leading to increased prices for both parent and commercial chicks [16] - The impact of the breeding stock shortage is expected to continue into the first half of 2024, supporting chick prices and benefiting the company's performance [17] - Domestic white-feathered chicken breeding stock imports were only 370,000 and 400,000 units in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating ongoing structural issues in the industry [17]