JAFRON(SZ:300529) Guotou Securities·2024-03-07 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 32.13 CNY, indicating a strong potential for growth in the coming months [4][36]. Core Insights - The company has launched a "Quality Return Dual Improvement" initiative aimed at promoting long-term sustainable development [5]. - The penetration rate of the company's kidney disease products has increased from 22% in 2019 to approximately 32% in 2022, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [7]. - The total theoretical sales space for the company's kidney disease products is estimated at 22.5 billion CNY, with the overall market potential across various segments reaching approximately 72 billion CNY [7]. - The average treatment frequency for patients using the company's blood purification products has increased from once a month to four times a month, which could significantly expand market opportunities [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2,675.5 million CNY in 2021, which decreased to 2,491.4 million CNY in 2022, with projections of 2,030.9 million CNY for 2023 and a rebound to 4,154.6 million CNY in 2024 [16][39]. - Net profit is expected to decline from 1,196.8 million CNY in 2021 to 485.4 million CNY in 2023, before recovering to 1,038.0 million CNY in 2024 and 1,401.6 million CNY in 2025 [16][39]. - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures rising from 174 million CNY in 2021 to 253 million CNY in 2022, and 176 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2023 [12]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, which has shown accelerated growth, achieving 128 million CNY in international revenue in 2021, a 138% increase year-on-year [34]. - The company has successfully entered 87 countries with its products, which are now included in the medical insurance catalogs of 13 countries, enhancing its global footprint [23]. Strategic Initiatives - Recent operational adjustments have led to improved performance, with a focus on team execution, academic promotion, and resource optimization [21][33]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having implemented a cash dividend policy and share buybacks, with cumulative cash dividends amounting to 2.642 billion CNY since its IPO [20].