Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 13.89 per share based on a 20x PE for 2024 [3][11]. Core Views - The company, Zhenjiu Lidu, is a high-growth white liquor enterprise with multiple brands and flavor types, benefiting from the "sauce liquor boom" and a strong brand presence [2][10]. - The management team is experienced, with an average of 17 years in the industry, led by Wu Xiangdong, who has over 20 years of operational experience [2][33]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with net profits projected to reach HKD 16.48 billion, HKD 21.58 billion, and HKD 26.99 billion from 2023 to 2025, representing year-on-year growth rates of 60%, 31%, and 25% respectively [2][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhenjiu Lidu operates multiple brands, including its flagship sauce liquor brand Zhenjiu and the semi-high-end Jiangxi Lidu, along with regional leaders Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao [2][18]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with Wu Xiangdong holding 81.3% of the shares, ensuring stable management [29][31]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company benefits from the ongoing trend of sauce liquor, which, despite only accounting for 8.4% of total liquor production, contributes 31.5% of industry revenue and over 45% of profits [2][45]. - Zhenjiu's product strategy includes a clear upward price extension, with flagship products like Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 driving growth in the high-end market [2][9]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported revenues of HKD 5.1 billion in 2021 and HKD 5.9 billion in 2022, with projections of HKD 7.1 billion, HKD 8.5 billion, and HKD 10.2 billion for 2023 to 2025, respectively [7][19]. - The net profit for 2022 was HKD 1.03 billion, with forecasts of HKD 1.65 billion, HKD 2.16 billion, and HKD 2.70 billion for the following three years [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as a second-tier leader in the sauce liquor market, with a strong brand effect that allows it to maintain growth even as the overall market experiences pressure [10][11]. - The competitive strategy includes a diversified product range and a well-structured distribution network, enhancing market penetration and brand loyalty [2][9].
珍酒势能持续向上，多重引擎驱动成长