商品代鸡苗景气可期，种鸡龙头有望释放业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating with a target price of 13.66 CNY for the next six months, while the current stock price is 10.22 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - The white feather chicken industry is expected to recover in 2024, with the company positioned as a leading player in the sector, likely benefiting from the cyclical upturn and releasing performance elasticity [12][41]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.7%, and net profits of 10.8 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 99.6% [12][51]. - The company is also expanding its pig breeding business, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in the coming years [10][51]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 32.25 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 52.71%, and a net profit of 5.40 billion CNY, marking a turnaround from losses [24]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a decline in revenue to 5.66 billion CNY, down 17.76% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of parent stock chicken [24][12]. Chicken Business - The company sold 645 million white feather chicken chicks in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.26%, generating sales revenue of 2.639 billion CNY, up 65.74% [3]. - The average selling price for parent stock and commercial chicks is expected to be 37 CNY per set and 4.2 CNY per chick, respectively, in 2024 [3][50]. Pig Business - The company is enhancing its pig breeding capacity, with current production at 13,600 heads and plans to increase to 54,000 heads of original breeding pigs and 29,400 heads of commercial pigs by 2026 [10]. - Revenue from the pig business is projected to reach 2.0 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 274.9% [10][51]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.8 billion CNY in 2024, 7.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.4 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 0.65, and 0.76 CNY [12][51]. - The projected revenue for the chicken business for 2024-2026 is 33.7 billion CNY, 30.4 billion CNY, and 32.3 billion CNY, with gross margins of 42.8%, 34.9%, and 36.8% respectively [50][51].