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2023年年度业绩预告点评:23H2行业压力加大,公司业绩进一步承压
CHINA FEIHECHINA FEIHE(HK:06186) EBSCN·2024-03-11 16:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face significant pressure in 2023, with projected revenue of 19.66-19.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7%-9.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.13-3.43 billion yuan, down 30.6%-36.7% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in birth rates and intensified industry competition are major factors contributing to the revenue drop [2] - Despite the challenges, China Feihe remains the market leader in the infant formula sector, holding the top position in China for five consecutive years and globally for three years [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2023, the company anticipates revenue of 19.66-19.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.13-3.43 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous years [2][3] - The expected net profit margin for 2023 is projected to be 16.2%-17.3%, a decrease of 6.0-7.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Conditions - The infant formula industry is under pressure due to a declining birth rate, with 2023 birth numbers reported at 9.02 million, a further drop from 2022 [2] - The company is expected to see a revenue decline in the second half of 2023, with estimates of 9.56-10.14 billion yuan, down 12.8%-17.8% year-on-year [2] Competitive Position - China Feihe continues to lead the infant formula market in China, with a strong brand presence and market share despite the overall industry contraction [2] - The report suggests that as competitors exit the market, the industry concentration may improve, potentially benefiting the company in 2024 [3] Earnings Estimates - The net profit estimates for 2023-2025 have been revised downwards to 3.29 billion, 3.61 billion, and 3.91 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a reduction of 25.7%-27.8% from previous forecasts [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023-2025 are projected at 0.36, 0.40, and 0.43 yuan [3]