Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The leading company in the education sector is expected to benefit from a significant supply reduction and has completed compliance ahead of others. The company is well-positioned in the Greater Bay Area and is likely to achieve a rapid recovery through non-academic quality education training and high school business [2]. - The company is projected to have net profits of 102 million, 150 million, and 218 million CNY for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.27, and 0.39 CNY [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to recover quickly due to the significant supply reduction post-"double reduction" policy, with a focus on K9 quality education and stable high school operations. The projected revenues for 2023-2025 are 5.65 billion, 8.11 billion, and 11.76 billion CNY, with growth rates of 40%, 44%, and 45% respectively [18][19]. 2. Company Overview - The company has undergone strategic adjustments since the "double reduction" policy, launching K9 quality education courses in 2021, which now account for 80% of its revenue. The high school business contributes approximately 15% to the overall revenue [2][28]. 3. Industry Analysis - The education industry is experiencing a significant supply reduction, with a 90% decrease in academic training institutions post-policy. The demand for education remains resilient, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, where the number of students in primary and secondary education is gradually increasing [2][42]. 4. Business Focus - The company is concentrating on non-academic quality education and high school tutoring, with a diverse range of over 288 products and 1012 scientific experiments designed to meet the needs of preschool and primary school users [2][28]. 5. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, the company reported revenues of 251 million CNY, a 31% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 104 million CNY and a gross margin of 41% [35][36]. The non-academic quality education segment accounted for 92% of total revenue [36].
首次覆盖报告：供给出清，教培龙头受益