Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 21.3 HKD, compared to the current price of 10.94 HKD, indicating a potential upside of over 20% [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company has experienced significant growth in cigarette and new tobacco exports, with expectations for accelerated expansion in 2024. The company reported a revenue of 11.836 billion HKD in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 42.19%, and a net profit of 599 million HKD, up 59.72% year-on-year, exceeding previous profit forecasts [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue sources include: - Tobacco leaf product exports generated 1.652 billion HKD in 2023, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, accounting for 14.0% of total revenue [1]. - Tobacco leaf imports saw revenue of 8.079 billion HKD, a 49% increase year-on-year, making up 68.3% of total revenue [1]. - Cigarette exports reached 1.209 billion HKD, a substantial increase of 876% year-on-year, contributing 10.2% to total revenue [1]. - New tobacco product exports generated 130 million HKD, an 18% increase year-on-year, accounting for 1.1% of total revenue [1]. - Operations in Brazil yielded 766 million HKD, a 41% increase year-on-year, representing 6.5% of total revenue [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margins for various segments were reported as follows: - Tobacco leaf exports had a gross margin of 2.7%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Tobacco leaf imports had a gross margin of 9.1%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Cigarette exports achieved a gross margin of 13.6%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - New tobacco products had a gross margin of 4.4%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Brazilian operations reported a gross margin of 18.4%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as the exclusive international business platform for China National Tobacco Corporation, which is expected to benefit from ongoing overseas expansion and potential acquisitions. The report anticipates revenue growth for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 13.636 billion HKD, 15.277 billion HKD, and 17.197 billion HKD respectively, with net profits projected at 695 million HKD, 778 million HKD, and 913 million HKD [1].
卷烟、新型烟草出口高增长，预计24年外延式扩张加速！